Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hosiden Corporation (6804.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,207.75 - $14,942.67$8,153.15
Multi-Stage$5,359.54 - $5,877.98$5,613.89
Blended Fair Value$6,883.52
Current Price$2,353.00
Upside192.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.44%17.32%59.6069.3578.2825.7626.6826.6827.1310.858.9711.38
YoY Growth---14.06%-11.41%203.83%-3.42%0.00%-1.68%150.17%20.98%-21.19%-5.75%
Dividend Yield--2.69%3.23%4.35%2.09%2.68%2.83%2.20%1.16%0.70%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,025.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,694.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,343.801,464.88878.93
Cash Retained (M)8,694.008,694.008,694.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,343.80-1,464.88-878.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,350.207,229.137,815.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.7754.7754.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share115.95132.00142.69
LTM Dividend per Share55.2355.2355.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share115.95132.00142.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend171.18187.23197.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Fair Value$5,207.75$8,153.15$14,942.67
Upside / Downside121.32%246.50%535.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,719.0012,218.5412,739.3713,282.4113,848.5914,438.9114,872.08
Payout Ratio25.81%38.65%51.49%64.33%77.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,025.004,722.496,559.218,543.9310,685.9312,995.0213,756.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)4,385.274,427.744,470.21
Year 2 PV (M)5,655.905,765.985,877.11
Year 3 PV (M)6,841.227,041.907,246.47
Year 4 PV (M)7,945.368,257.648,579.02
Year 5 PV (M)8,972.309,415.249,875.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)259,729.87272,552.00285,875.59
Equity Value (M)293,529.93307,460.49321,923.90
Shares Outstanding (M)54.7754.7754.77
Fair Value$5,359.54$5,613.89$5,877.98
Upside / Downside127.77%138.58%149.81%

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