Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Komatsu Ltd. (6301.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,423.01 - $89,360.88$83,744.23
Multi-Stage$11,858.95 - $12,972.49$12,405.53
Blended Fair Value$48,074.88
Current Price$5,160.00
Upside831.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.11%11.65%181.17151.29123.4679.2058.60117.13101.6566.7159.5159.49
YoY Growth--19.75%22.54%55.88%35.15%-49.97%15.23%52.37%12.11%0.03%-1.14%
Dividend Yield--3.82%3.16%3.18%2.63%2.12%5.32%3.82%2.11%2.08%3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)413,110.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175,480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)237,630.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82,622.0051,638.7530,983.25
Cash Retained (M)237,630.00237,630.00237,630.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-82,622.00-51,638.75-30,983.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)155,008.00185,991.25206,646.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)919.39919.39919.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share168.60202.30224.77
LTM Dividend per Share190.87190.87190.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share168.60202.30224.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend359.47393.17415.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27,423.01$83,744.23$89,360.88
Upside / Downside431.45%1,522.95%1,631.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)413,110.00439,962.15468,559.69499,016.07531,452.11565,996.50582,976.40
Payout Ratio42.48%51.98%61.49%70.99%80.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175,480.00228,702.15288,101.77354,257.08427,795.35509,396.85539,253.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)211,965.32213,974.47215,983.62
Year 2 PV (M)247,477.13252,190.88256,949.09
Year 3 PV (M)282,034.52290,130.71298,380.39
Year 4 PV (M)315,656.22327,795.47340,281.53
Year 5 PV (M)348,360.68365,186.63382,656.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,497,472.749,956,204.2210,432,492.44
Equity Value (M)10,902,966.6111,405,482.3911,926,743.62
Shares Outstanding (M)919.39919.39919.39
Fair Value$11,858.95$12,405.53$12,972.49
Upside / Downside129.82%140.42%151.40%

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