Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.52 - $10.13 | $8.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $15.59 - $17.14 | $16.35 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.27 | |
| Current Price | $5.21 | |
| Upside | 135.57% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.78% | 0.00% | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.83% | 19.73% | -37.14% | 26.36% | -0.72% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.60% | 7.45% | 4.02% | 4.39% | 1.94% | 3.65% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,264.33 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,086.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,177.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,252.87 | 783.04 | 469.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,177.52 | 1,177.52 | 1,177.52 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,252.87 | -783.04 | -469.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -75.34 | 394.48 | 707.70 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $6.52 | $8.19 | $10.13 |
| Upside / Downside | 25.17% | 57.22% | 94.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,264.33 | 6,201.68 | 6,139.67 | 6,078.27 | 6,017.49 | 5,957.31 | 6,136.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.20% | 82.96% | 84.72% | 86.48% | 88.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,086.80 | 5,145.05 | 5,201.62 | 5,256.55 | 5,309.86 | 5,361.58 | 5,675.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,790.80 | 4,839.69 | 4,888.57 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,510.00 | 4,602.51 | 4,695.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,243.82 | 4,375.06 | 4,508.99 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,991.70 | 4,157.14 | 4,327.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,753.07 | 3,948.50 | 4,151.99 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 120,048.55 | 126,299.75 | 132,808.70 |
| Equity Value (M) | 141,337.94 | 148,222.65 | 155,381.87 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 |
| Fair Value | $15.59 | $16.35 | $17.14 |
| Upside / Downside | 199.33% | 213.91% | 229.07% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |