Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ZhongWang Fabric Co., Ltd. (605003.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - TextilesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.45 - $8.40$6.82
Multi-Stage$12.40 - $13.64$13.01
Blended Fair Value$9.91
Current Price$22.77
Upside-56.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.10%0.00%0.410.410.410.400.000.480.000.870.530.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%2.50%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%64.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.39%2.08%1.80%0.00%1.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.048.154.89
Cash Retained (M)20.0820.0820.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.04-8.15-4.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.0511.9415.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.81109.81109.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.45$6.82$8.40
Upside / Downside-76.07%-70.05%-63.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.1864.5363.8963.2562.6161.9963.85
Payout Ratio69.19%73.35%77.51%81.68%85.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.1047.3349.5251.6653.7555.7959.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)43.9844.4344.88
Year 2 PV (M)42.7543.6344.51
Year 3 PV (M)41.4442.7244.02
Year 4 PV (M)40.0641.7243.43
Year 5 PV (M)38.6340.6442.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,155.311,215.471,278.11
Equity Value (M)1,362.171,428.601,497.69
Shares Outstanding (M)109.81109.81109.81
Fair Value$12.40$13.01$13.64
Upside / Downside-45.52%-42.86%-40.10%

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