Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

DuZhe Publish&Media Co.,Ltd (603999.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.02 - $1.52$1.25
Multi-Stage$1.34 - $1.46$1.40
Blended Fair Value$1.33
Current Price$6.43
Upside-79.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.52%-2.99%0.050.040.050.040.030.020.040.050.060.01
YoY Growth--15.56%-1.91%16.32%16.00%40.45%-40.65%-20.11%-12.31%767.51%-90.47%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.71%0.70%0.64%0.65%0.42%0.62%0.69%0.43%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.058.785.27
Cash Retained (M)51.2451.2451.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.05-8.78-5.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.1942.4645.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)580.87580.87580.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Fair Value$1.02$1.25$1.52
Upside / Downside-84.18%-80.49%-76.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.2571.2772.3073.3474.4075.4877.74
Payout Ratio27.06%39.65%52.23%64.82%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.0128.2537.7647.5457.5967.9371.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)25.4325.6925.94
Year 2 PV (M)30.6031.2131.83
Year 3 PV (M)34.6735.7236.78
Year 4 PV (M)37.8139.3440.91
Year 5 PV (M)40.1442.1844.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)606.91637.72669.78
Equity Value (M)775.55811.85849.54
Shares Outstanding (M)580.87580.87580.87
Fair Value$1.34$1.40$1.46
Upside / Downside-79.24%-78.26%-77.25%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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