Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Argus (Shanghai) Textile Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (603790.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.12 - $3.09$2.59
Multi-Stage$5.54 - $6.11$5.82
Blended Fair Value$4.21
Current Price$25.92
Upside-83.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.30%28.31%0.130.080.120.100.200.230.170.070.220.02
YoY Growth--67.47%-32.34%19.69%-50.61%-13.33%33.33%147.80%-69.12%872.06%110.14%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.69%1.03%0.95%1.88%1.57%0.81%0.57%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.467.164.30
Cash Retained (M)31.5031.5031.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.46-7.16-4.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.0424.3327.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.45194.45194.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate-4.17%-3.17%-2.17%
Fair Value$2.12$2.59$3.09
Upside / Downside-91.81%-90.00%-88.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.3055.4953.7352.0350.3848.7850.25
Payout Ratio45.04%54.03%63.02%72.01%81.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.8129.9833.8637.4740.8143.9046.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate-4.17%-3.17%-2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)27.8728.1628.45
Year 2 PV (M)29.2629.8730.49
Year 3 PV (M)30.0931.0432.02
Year 4 PV (M)30.4731.7633.09
Year 5 PV (M)30.4732.0933.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)929.98979.521,031.16
Equity Value (M)1,078.131,132.451,188.99
Shares Outstanding (M)194.45194.45194.45
Fair Value$5.54$5.82$6.11
Upside / Downside-78.61%-77.53%-76.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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