Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai MOONS' Electric Co.,Ltd. (603728.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $2.77$2.25
Multi-Stage$2.24 - $2.45$2.34
Blended Fair Value$2.30
Current Price$84.64
Upside-97.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.11%5.48%0.070.100.130.050.060.060.040.130.080.06
YoY Growth---34.25%-19.77%162.84%-21.75%-2.59%60.71%-68.41%54.90%44.27%42.22%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.18%0.30%0.30%0.41%0.47%0.29%0.79%0.65%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.0910.066.04
Cash Retained (M)58.8158.8158.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.09-10.06-6.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.7248.7552.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.43418.43418.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate1.26%2.26%3.26%
Fair Value$1.80$2.25$2.77
Upside / Downside-97.87%-97.34%-96.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.4782.2984.1586.0588.0089.9892.68
Payout Ratio26.92%39.53%52.15%64.77%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.6632.5343.8855.7368.0980.9985.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate1.26%2.26%3.26%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3129.6029.89
Year 2 PV (M)35.6336.3337.05
Year 3 PV (M)40.7741.9943.23
Year 4 PV (M)44.8846.6848.53
Year 5 PV (M)48.0950.5153.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)737.77774.93813.57
Equity Value (M)936.45980.051,025.30
Shares Outstanding (M)418.43418.43418.43
Fair Value$2.24$2.34$2.45
Upside / Downside-97.36%-97.23%-97.10%

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