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Definitive Analysis

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GuiZhou SanLi Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (603439.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.98 - $73.67$23.74
Multi-Stage$8.21 - $8.95$8.58
Blended Fair Value$16.16
Current Price$12.65
Upside27.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%45.98%0.250.120.020.270.010.000.170.110.150.00
YoY Growth--104.33%470.54%-91.90%4,103.18%0.00%-100.00%56.89%-30.00%10,505.51%-74.48%
Dividend Yield--1.95%0.76%0.12%1.48%0.03%0.00%1.61%1.02%1.46%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)160.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.1420.0912.05
Cash Retained (M)6.826.826.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.14-20.09-12.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-25.32-13.27-5.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)413.78413.78413.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.98$23.74$73.67
Upside / Downside2.64%87.69%482.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)160.68171.13182.25194.10206.71220.15226.75
Payout Ratio95.76%94.61%93.45%92.30%91.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.87161.90170.32179.16188.42198.13209.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)148.46149.87151.28
Year 2 PV (M)143.23145.96148.71
Year 3 PV (M)138.16142.13146.17
Year 4 PV (M)133.25138.37143.64
Year 5 PV (M)128.49134.70141.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,707.332,838.092,973.86
Equity Value (M)3,398.923,549.123,704.80
Shares Outstanding (M)413.78413.78413.78
Fair Value$8.21$8.58$8.95
Upside / Downside-35.06%-32.19%-29.22%

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