Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603229.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.85 - $11.89$7.24
Multi-Stage$3.32 - $3.63$3.47
Blended Fair Value$5.35
Current Price$10.20
Upside-47.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.10%32.52%0.100.060.040.020.010.010.010.000.010.01
YoY Growth--77.50%62.05%63.20%49.50%36.36%-21.43%277.42%-46.12%30.34%-16.19%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.75%0.30%0.10%0.13%0.18%0.39%0.09%0.27%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)184.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)179.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.9723.1013.86
Cash Retained (M)179.28179.28179.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.97-23.10-13.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.31156.17165.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.80833.80833.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.85$7.24$11.89
Upside / Downside-52.41%-29.05%16.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)184.84196.85209.65223.27237.79253.24260.84
Payout Ratio3.01%20.41%37.80%55.20%72.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5640.1779.26123.25172.64227.92241.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.3936.7337.08
Year 2 PV (M)65.0466.2867.53
Year 3 PV (M)91.6294.2596.93
Year 4 PV (M)116.25120.72125.32
Year 5 PV (M)139.03145.75152.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,316.192,428.062,544.22
Equity Value (M)2,764.522,891.803,023.80
Shares Outstanding (M)833.80833.80833.80
Fair Value$3.32$3.47$3.63
Upside / Downside-67.49%-66.00%-64.45%

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