Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Ningbo Fujia Industrial Co., Ltd. (603219.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.25 - $11.65$7.57
Multi-Stage$3.70 - $4.04$3.86
Blended Fair Value$5.72
Current Price$18.88
Upside-69.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS45.14%0.00%0.300.280.290.020.100.050.310.150.000.00
YoY Growth--5.14%-2.68%1,511.13%-82.64%125.07%-84.82%104.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.80%1.99%2.12%0.14%1.06%0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.7019.1811.51
Cash Retained (M)148.81148.81148.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.70-19.18-11.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)118.11129.62137.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)579.61579.61579.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.25$7.57$11.65
Upside / Downside-72.22%-59.92%-38.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153.48163.45174.08185.39197.44210.28216.58
Payout Ratio3.04%20.43%37.83%55.22%72.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.6733.4065.85102.37143.36189.25200.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.1430.4330.72
Year 2 PV (M)53.6354.6655.69
Year 3 PV (M)75.2577.4179.62
Year 4 PV (M)95.1298.77102.54
Year 5 PV (M)113.32118.79124.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,774.421,860.121,949.11
Equity Value (M)2,141.892,240.192,342.14
Shares Outstanding (M)579.61579.61579.61
Fair Value$3.70$3.86$4.04
Upside / Downside-80.43%-79.53%-78.60%

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