Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co., Limited (600814.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.03 - $48.39$45.32
Multi-Stage$344.98 - $380.76$362.51
Blended Fair Value$203.92
Current Price$7.46
Upside2,633.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.90%17.02%0.140.130.180.110.090.060.080.080.090.10
YoY Growth--10.15%-31.67%74.10%12.94%53.93%-20.47%-2.93%-15.81%-4.76%241.57%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.99%2.37%1.35%1.68%1.11%1.22%1.05%0.78%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)196.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.2824.5514.73
Cash Retained (M)95.6295.6295.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.28-24.55-14.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.3471.0780.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)765.86765.86765.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Fair Value$41.03$45.32$48.39
Upside / Downside449.95%507.52%548.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)196.38198.34200.32202.32204.33206.37212.56
Payout Ratio51.31%59.05%66.79%74.52%82.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.76117.12133.78150.77168.09185.73196.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Year 1 PV (M)196.16198.12200.08
Year 2 PV (M)375.30382.84390.46
Year 3 PV (M)708.41729.87751.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,322.761,376.471,431.80
Year 5 PV (M)2,448.052,572.932,702.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)259,153.42272,373.21286,127.06
Equity Value (M)264,204.09277,633.44291,604.03
Shares Outstanding (M)765.86765.86765.86
Fair Value$344.98$362.51$380.76
Upside / Downside4,524.38%4,759.43%5,003.96%

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