Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd (600738.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.36 - $0.48$0.42
Multi-Stage$1.08 - $1.21$1.14
Blended Fair Value$0.78
Current Price$4.97
Upside-84.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.59%2.42%0.070.050.140.050.072.000.620.140.030.02
YoY Growth--38.80%-62.07%194.33%-34.42%-96.46%222.41%354.55%432.40%31.59%-65.56%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.19%1.83%0.87%1.14%34.88%7.62%1.74%0.28%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2010.126.07
Cash Retained (M)55.6155.6155.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.20-10.12-6.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4145.4949.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)736.03736.03736.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate-13.92%-12.92%-11.92%
Fair Value$0.36$0.42$0.48
Upside / Downside-92.69%-91.51%-90.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.9970.5261.4153.4746.5640.5541.76
Payout Ratio31.33%43.07%54.80%66.53%78.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.3830.3733.6535.5836.4436.4938.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate-13.92%-12.92%-11.92%
Year 1 PV (M)28.0728.4028.73
Year 2 PV (M)28.7529.4330.11
Year 3 PV (M)28.1029.0930.10
Year 4 PV (M)26.6127.8629.17
Year 5 PV (M)24.6226.0927.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)661.25700.56741.73
Equity Value (M)797.41841.43887.45
Shares Outstanding (M)736.03736.03736.03
Fair Value$1.08$1.14$1.21
Upside / Downside-78.20%-77.00%-75.74%

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