Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (600585.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.56 - $10.20$8.92
Multi-Stage$25.20 - $27.92$26.53
Blended Fair Value$17.72
Current Price$23.22
Upside-23.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.85%7.14%1.151.512.432.162.041.731.340.640.630.85
YoY Growth---24.14%-37.82%12.26%6.00%18.34%29.20%107.49%1.68%-25.48%47.73%
Dividend Yield--4.72%6.74%8.60%5.48%3.99%3.13%3.36%2.00%3.05%5.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,802.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,562.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,239.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,760.431,100.27660.16
Cash Retained (M)4,239.824,239.824,239.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,760.43-1,100.27-660.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,479.393,139.563,579.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,189.185,189.185,189.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.610.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.610.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Fair Value$7.56$8.92$10.20
Upside / Downside-67.42%-61.60%-56.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,802.158,022.807,312.466,665.006,074.885,537.005,703.11
Payout Ratio51.83%59.47%67.10%74.73%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,562.334,770.814,906.604,980.945,003.664,983.305,275.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Year 1 PV (M)4,438.144,487.374,536.60
Year 2 PV (M)4,246.184,340.914,436.69
Year 3 PV (M)4,009.954,144.884,282.81
Year 4 PV (M)3,747.353,916.424,091.14
Year 5 PV (M)3,471.863,668.753,874.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,827.95117,113.00123,680.00
Equity Value (M)130,741.44137,671.33144,901.72
Shares Outstanding (M)5,189.185,189.185,189.18
Fair Value$25.20$26.53$27.92
Upside / Downside8.51%14.26%20.26%

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