Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Co.,Ltd. (600576.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.00 - $9.75$5.96
Multi-Stage$2.77 - $3.03$2.90
Blended Fair Value$4.43
Current Price$7.72
Upside-42.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.30%19.82%0.020.010.020.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--21.45%-28.02%-21.45%1,288.53%45.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-26.99%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.21%0.24%0.38%0.03%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)192.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.5224.0814.45
Cash Retained (M)169.69169.69169.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.52-24.08-14.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.17145.62155.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,047.341,047.341,047.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.00$5.96$9.75
Upside / Downside-48.13%-22.82%26.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)192.60205.12218.46232.66247.78263.88271.80
Payout Ratio11.90%27.52%43.14%58.76%74.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.9156.4494.24136.70184.30237.50251.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51.1251.6052.09
Year 2 PV (M)77.3078.7780.26
Year 3 PV (M)101.56104.48107.45
Year 4 PV (M)124.00128.77133.68
Year 5 PV (M)144.73151.72158.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,402.802,518.862,639.36
Equity Value (M)2,901.513,034.203,171.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,047.341,047.341,047.34
Fair Value$2.77$2.90$3.03
Upside / Downside-64.11%-62.47%-60.77%

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