Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600420.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.32 - $11.64$9.29
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.87$8.47
Blended Fair Value$8.88
Current Price$10.64
Upside-16.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.51%13.09%0.220.140.140.160.160.240.190.340.350.48
YoY Growth--58.79%2.52%-13.06%1.02%-35.19%24.10%-42.37%-3.01%-27.23%631.70%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.58%1.26%1.43%1.75%2.46%1.86%2.82%2.13%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)930.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)880.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.05116.2869.77
Cash Retained (M)880.71880.71880.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.05-116.28-69.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)694.66764.43810.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,341.111,341.111,341.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Fair Value$7.32$9.29$11.64
Upside / Downside-31.16%-12.70%9.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)930.27960.22991.141,023.051,055.991,089.991,122.69
Payout Ratio5.33%22.26%39.20%56.13%73.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.56213.76388.49574.25771.57981.001,038.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Year 1 PV (M)192.51194.39196.27
Year 2 PV (M)315.08321.27327.53
Year 3 PV (M)419.43431.86444.54
Year 4 PV (M)507.52527.68548.42
Year 5 PV (M)581.13610.11640.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,833.629,274.259,732.28
Equity Value (M)10,849.2911,359.5711,889.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,341.111,341.111,341.11
Fair Value$8.09$8.47$8.87
Upside / Downside-23.97%-20.39%-16.68%

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