Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Innovation New Material Technology Co., Ltd. Class A (600361.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.74 - $44.99$42.16
Multi-Stage$6.97 - $7.62$7.29
Blended Fair Value$24.72
Current Price$4.22
Upside485.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.63%9.22%0.170.140.080.080.050.060.050.040.080.07
YoY Growth--25.73%76.71%1.30%54.88%-20.44%22.06%30.62%-53.49%12.53%4.39%
Dividend Yield--4.12%2.92%1.25%1.43%1.30%1.29%1.08%0.74%1.23%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)929.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)720.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)209.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.81116.1369.68
Cash Retained (M)209.02209.02209.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.81-116.13-69.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2092.88139.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,107.244,107.244,107.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.74$42.16$44.99
Upside / Downside391.44%899.02%966.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)929.07989.461,053.781,122.271,195.221,272.911,311.10
Payout Ratio77.50%80.00%82.50%85.00%87.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)720.05791.59869.38953.941,045.821,145.621,212.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)736.85743.83750.81
Year 2 PV (M)753.29767.64782.13
Year 3 PV (M)769.40791.49813.99
Year 4 PV (M)785.18815.37846.43
Year 5 PV (M)800.62839.29879.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,777.8225,974.6027,217.18
Equity Value (M)28,623.1629,932.2231,289.99
Shares Outstanding (M)4,107.244,107.244,107.24
Fair Value$6.97$7.29$7.62
Upside / Downside65.14%72.69%80.53%

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