Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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WuHan Yangtze Communication Industry GroupCo.,Ltd (600345.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.88 - $4.13$3.49
Multi-Stage$4.11 - $4.52$4.31
Blended Fair Value$3.90
Current Price$27.52
Upside-85.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.32%2.74%0.090.130.080.030.060.220.240.070.060.07
YoY Growth---34.08%77.15%121.84%-44.45%-71.48%-11.06%249.65%18.04%-12.46%-0.60%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.63%0.38%0.22%0.42%1.04%0.65%0.27%0.27%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.5017.1910.31
Cash Retained (M)129.24129.24129.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.50-17.19-10.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.74112.05118.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)336.92336.92336.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-1.35%-0.35%0.65%
Fair Value$2.88$3.49$4.13
Upside / Downside-89.54%-87.31%-84.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.52137.04136.55136.07135.59135.11139.17
Payout Ratio6.02%22.82%39.61%56.41%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.2831.2754.0976.7699.26121.60128.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-1.35%-0.35%0.65%
Year 1 PV (M)28.1828.4728.75
Year 2 PV (M)43.9444.8345.74
Year 3 PV (M)56.1957.9259.68
Year 4 PV (M)65.4968.1970.97
Year 5 PV (M)72.3176.0579.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,118.871,176.751,236.99
Equity Value (M)1,384.991,452.201,522.07
Shares Outstanding (M)336.92336.92336.92
Fair Value$4.11$4.31$4.52
Upside / Downside-85.06%-84.34%-83.58%

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