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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (600332.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$150.10 - $365.29$342.33
Multi-Stage$53.79 - $58.84$56.27
Blended Fair Value$199.30
Current Price$25.55
Upside680.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.57%18.57%1.380.970.920.780.790.640.540.290.320.25
YoY Growth--41.98%6.35%17.73%-1.85%23.36%20.12%87.77%-9.53%27.72%-2.10%
Dividend Yield--5.23%3.34%2.77%2.48%2.85%2.04%1.35%0.94%1.11%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,986.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,509.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,477.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)597.31373.32223.99
Cash Retained (M)1,477.541,477.541,477.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-597.31-373.32-223.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)880.221,104.221,253.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,626.001,626.001,626.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.680.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.680.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$150.10$342.33$365.29
Upside / Downside487.49%1,239.83%1,329.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,986.573,180.703,387.443,607.633,842.124,091.864,214.62
Payout Ratio50.53%58.42%66.32%74.21%82.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,509.031,858.222,246.432,677.253,154.593,682.683,898.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,727.891,744.271,760.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,942.371,979.372,016.71
Year 3 PV (M)2,152.532,214.322,277.28
Year 4 PV (M)2,358.422,449.122,542.41
Year 5 PV (M)2,560.132,683.782,812.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,715.4980,420.8784,268.07
Equity Value (M)87,456.8391,491.7395,677.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,626.001,626.001,626.00
Fair Value$53.79$56.27$58.84
Upside / Downside110.51%120.23%130.30%

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