Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.,Ltd (600305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.23 - $1.87$1.53
Multi-Stage$1.95 - $2.14$2.04
Blended Fair Value$1.79
Current Price$7.92
Upside-77.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.02%1.57%0.070.100.090.150.150.090.090.050.070.04
YoY Growth---29.69%5.58%-36.91%-2.98%70.13%6.06%59.35%-25.53%94.11%-38.13%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.22%0.79%1.40%0.81%0.59%0.79%0.88%1.13%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7918.6211.17
Cash Retained (M)83.2383.2383.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.79-18.62-11.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.4564.6272.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,100.861,100.861,100.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Fair Value$1.23$1.53$1.87
Upside / Downside-84.50%-80.68%-76.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.94149.78150.63151.49152.35153.22157.81
Payout Ratio44.11%53.29%62.47%71.65%80.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.7079.8294.10108.54123.13137.89145.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)72.9473.6774.40
Year 2 PV (M)78.5780.1681.76
Year 3 PV (M)82.8185.3387.90
Year 4 PV (M)85.8589.3592.96
Year 5 PV (M)87.8592.3597.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,738.961,828.061,920.77
Equity Value (M)2,146.982,248.922,354.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,100.861,100.861,100.86
Fair Value$1.95$2.04$2.14
Upside / Downside-75.38%-74.21%-72.99%

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