Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.,Ltd. (600251.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.34 - $56.43$23.77
Multi-Stage$6.29 - $6.88$6.58
Blended Fair Value$15.18
Current Price$8.21
Upside84.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.20%12.03%0.530.280.150.100.030.090.140.100.140.16
YoY Growth--88.04%90.25%53.80%204.29%-65.27%-32.99%35.47%-30.00%-13.31%-2.75%
Dividend Yield--7.51%3.28%1.74%0.98%0.46%1.36%2.17%1.42%1.65%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.9527.4716.48
Cash Retained (M)109.58109.58109.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.95-27.47-16.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.6382.1193.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.36774.36774.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.34$23.77$56.43
Upside / Downside38.10%189.54%587.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.74234.02249.23265.43282.69301.06310.09
Payout Ratio50.13%58.11%66.08%74.05%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.16135.98164.69196.56231.88270.95286.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125.17126.36127.55
Year 2 PV (M)139.56142.21144.90
Year 3 PV (M)153.33157.73162.21
Year 4 PV (M)166.50172.90179.49
Year 5 PV (M)179.10187.75196.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,110.604,309.144,515.28
Equity Value (M)4,874.255,096.105,326.16
Shares Outstanding (M)774.36774.36774.36
Fair Value$6.29$6.58$6.88
Upside / Downside-23.33%-19.84%-16.22%

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