Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. (600196.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.10 - $246.35$230.87
Multi-Stage$57.36 - $62.87$60.06
Blended Fair Value$145.46
Current Price$29.84
Upside387.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.26%12.68%0.780.420.540.420.380.310.370.330.280.24
YoY Growth--83.65%-21.88%30.14%10.24%22.22%-15.95%11.53%17.93%14.43%3.68%
Dividend Yield--3.13%1.80%1.67%0.78%0.95%0.94%1.21%0.74%0.99%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,282.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)957.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,324.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)656.51410.32246.19
Cash Retained (M)2,324.902,324.902,324.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-656.51-410.32-246.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,668.391,914.582,078.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,649.912,649.912,649.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.720.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.720.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.15
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$209.10$230.87$246.35
Upside / Downside600.73%673.69%725.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,282.543,495.903,723.143,965.144,222.874,497.364,632.28
Payout Ratio29.17%41.34%53.50%65.67%77.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)957.641,445.171,992.042,603.893,286.864,047.634,284.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,360.281,373.171,386.07
Year 2 PV (M)1,764.881,798.491,832.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,171.442,233.772,297.29
Year 4 PV (M)2,579.972,679.192,781.24
Year 5 PV (M)2,990.493,134.933,284.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)141,119.68147,935.82155,012.82
Equity Value (M)151,986.73159,155.37166,594.74
Shares Outstanding (M)2,649.912,649.912,649.91
Fair Value$57.36$60.06$62.87
Upside / Downside92.21%101.28%110.68%

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