Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Heilongjiang Interchina Water Treatment Co.,Ltd. (600187.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.02 - $0.03$0.03
Multi-Stage$0.04 - $0.05$0.04
Blended Fair Value$0.03
Current Price$2.81
Upside-98.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.06%-18.96%0.000.000.010.010.010.010.020.020.040.02
YoY Growth---27.95%-20.46%-21.17%13.11%-32.03%-46.15%-26.12%-38.97%66.30%-12.84%
Dividend Yield--0.10%0.19%0.23%0.31%0.25%0.42%0.51%0.53%0.69%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.692.311.38
Cash Retained (M)15.8915.8915.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.69-2.31-1.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.2013.5914.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,670.901,670.901,670.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-20.96%-19.96%-18.96%
Fair Value$0.02$0.03$0.03
Upside / Downside-99.20%-99.08%-98.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.4414.7611.819.467.576.066.24
Payout Ratio13.82%29.06%44.29%59.53%74.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.554.295.235.635.665.455.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-20.96%-19.96%-18.96%
Year 1 PV (M)3.853.903.95
Year 2 PV (M)4.224.334.44
Year 3 PV (M)4.084.244.40
Year 4 PV (M)3.683.874.07
Year 5 PV (M)3.193.403.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)48.6851.8455.16
Equity Value (M)67.7171.5875.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,670.901,670.901,670.90
Fair Value$0.04$0.04$0.05
Upside / Downside-98.56%-98.48%-98.39%

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