Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arakawa Chemical Industries, Ltd. (4968.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,063.63 - $1,803.59$1,385.99
Multi-Stage$2,011.28 - $2,209.46$2,108.46
Blended Fair Value$1,747.23
Current Price$1,096.00
Upside59.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.11%6.13%47.9947.9947.9947.9943.9545.4240.5342.6432.0630.80
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%9.17%-3.22%12.06%-4.96%33.02%4.09%16.38%
Dividend Yield--4.68%3.97%4.81%4.84%3.69%3.67%2.76%2.40%1.67%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)971.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)763.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)346.80216.75130.05
Cash Retained (M)763.00763.00763.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-346.80-216.75-130.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)416.20546.25632.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.8419.8419.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.9827.5331.90
LTM Dividend per Share48.9448.9448.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.9827.5331.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.9276.4880.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$1,063.63$1,385.99$1,803.59
Upside / Downside-2.95%26.46%64.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,734.001,749.911,765.961,782.171,798.521,815.021,869.47
Payout Ratio56.00%62.80%69.60%76.40%83.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)971.001,098.911,229.091,361.561,496.361,633.511,729.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)1,021.751,031.981,042.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,062.541,083.921,105.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,094.421,127.611,161.46
Year 4 PV (M)1,118.311,163.761,210.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,135.101,193.051,253.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,469.2936,229.0538,059.96
Equity Value (M)39,901.4141,829.3643,833.05
Shares Outstanding (M)19.8419.8419.84
Fair Value$2,011.28$2,108.46$2,209.46
Upside / Downside83.51%92.38%101.59%

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