Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,438.80 - $46,942.68$27,839.04
Multi-Stage$28,481.39 - $31,316.59$29,871.81
Blended Fair Value$28,855.43
Current Price$7,859.00
Upside267.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.74%2.82%125.33104.48104.30105.10104.56104.30103.80102.99102.6991.54
YoY Growth--19.96%0.17%-0.76%0.52%0.24%0.48%0.79%0.30%12.17%-3.54%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.65%2.48%2.48%2.23%2.47%2.38%1.93%2.04%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)449,106.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70,975.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)378,131.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89,821.2056,138.2533,682.95
Cash Retained (M)378,131.00378,131.00378,131.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-89,821.20-56,138.25-33,682.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)288,309.80321,992.75344,448.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share541.24604.47646.63
LTM Dividend per Share133.24133.24133.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share541.24604.47646.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend674.48737.71779.87
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$18,438.80$27,839.04$46,942.68
Upside / Downside134.62%254.23%497.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)449,106.00461,830.50474,915.53488,371.29502,208.30516,437.34531,930.46
Payout Ratio15.80%30.64%45.48%60.32%75.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70,975.00141,518.24216,001.89294,592.63377,463.39464,793.61492,035.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)132,762.70134,066.42135,370.15
Year 2 PV (M)190,101.21193,853.12197,641.69
Year 3 PV (M)243,227.60250,463.66257,841.83
Year 4 PV (M)292,367.76304,022.20316,021.65
Year 5 PV (M)337,736.85354,648.58372,231.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,975,377.7114,675,176.4215,402,731.74
Equity Value (M)15,171,573.8315,912,230.4016,681,838.15
Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
Fair Value$28,481.39$29,871.81$31,316.59
Upside / Downside262.40%280.10%298.48%

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