Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanyo Chemical Industries Ltd. (4471.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,714.22 - $6,941.19$5,783.45
Multi-Stage$11,685.75 - $12,891.65$12,276.62
Blended Fair Value$9,030.04
Current Price$4,120.00
Upside119.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.81%8.55%169.97169.70169.20164.28139.37134.39114.64109.5889.6979.79
YoY Growth--0.16%0.29%3.00%17.87%3.70%17.23%4.62%22.18%12.41%6.65%
Dividend Yield--4.65%4.22%3.99%3.45%2.58%2.90%2.00%2.28%1.70%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,629.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,760.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,869.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,725.801,703.631,022.18
Cash Retained (M)9,869.009,869.009,869.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,725.80-1,703.63-1,022.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,143.208,165.388,846.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share322.91369.12399.92
LTM Dividend per Share169.97169.97169.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share322.91369.12399.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend492.88539.09569.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Fair Value$4,714.22$5,783.45$6,941.19
Upside / Downside14.42%40.37%68.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,629.0013,275.5512,931.2612,595.9112,269.2511,951.0612,309.59
Payout Ratio27.59%40.07%52.55%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,760.005,319.596,795.768,191.789,510.8310,755.9511,386.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)4,944.294,995.575,046.86
Year 2 PV (M)5,870.695,993.116,116.79
Year 3 PV (M)6,577.416,784.226,995.32
Year 4 PV (M)7,097.747,396.857,705.31
Year 5 PV (M)7,460.647,855.698,267.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)226,554.63238,550.88251,050.00
Equity Value (M)258,505.40271,576.32285,181.58
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1222.1222.12
Fair Value$11,685.75$12,276.62$12,891.65
Upside / Downside183.63%197.98%212.90%

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