Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.53 - $8.54 | $6.93 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.85 - $14.12 | $13.47 |
| Blended Fair Value | $10.20 | |
| Current Price | $5.57 | |
| Upside | 83.09% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -18.04% | 0.00% | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -21.38% | -49.73% | -5.91% | 11.39% | -10.70% | 20.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.68% | 4.27% | 6.86% | 5.86% | 5.96% | 7.12% | 7.39% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 64.33 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 53.15 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 12.87 | 8.04 | 4.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11.17 | 11.17 | 11.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -12.87 | -8.04 | -4.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -1.69 | 3.13 | 6.35 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 107.51 | 107.51 | 107.51 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $5.53 | $6.93 | $8.54 |
| Upside / Downside | -0.72% | 24.36% | 53.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 64.33 | 63.68 | 63.05 | 62.42 | 61.79 | 61.18 | 63.01 |
| Payout Ratio | 82.63% | 84.10% | 85.58% | 87.05% | 88.53% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 53.15 | 53.56 | 53.96 | 54.34 | 54.70 | 55.06 | 58.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 49.79 | 50.30 | 50.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 46.63 | 47.59 | 48.55 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 43.65 | 45.00 | 46.38 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 40.86 | 42.55 | 44.29 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 38.23 | 40.22 | 42.29 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,161.90 | 1,222.40 | 1,285.40 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,381.06 | 1,448.06 | 1,517.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 107.51 | 107.51 | 107.51 |
| Fair Value | $12.85 | $13.47 | $14.12 |
| Upside / Downside | 130.63% | 141.82% | 153.46% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |