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Definitive Analysis

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Wellell Inc. (4106.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.21 - $29.49$22.52
Multi-Stage$24.94 - $27.32$26.10
Blended Fair Value$24.31
Current Price$22.10
Upside10.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.24%3.30%0.790.840.550.550.450.640.660.660.820.82
YoY Growth---5.88%54.55%0.00%22.22%-30.77%-1.67%0.00%-20.00%0.00%42.86%
Dividend Yield--3.27%2.95%1.89%2.02%1.65%2.47%2.49%2.29%2.64%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7417.3410.40
Cash Retained (M)57.9957.9957.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.74-17.34-10.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.2440.6547.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.71101.71101.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.400.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.400.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$17.21$22.52$29.49
Upside / Downside-22.11%1.91%33.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.72141.80144.96148.19151.49154.86159.51
Payout Ratio58.20%64.56%70.92%77.28%83.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.7391.55102.80114.52126.71139.38147.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)84.2185.0585.88
Year 2 PV (M)87.0088.7290.47
Year 3 PV (M)89.1591.8294.54
Year 4 PV (M)90.7394.3798.12
Year 5 PV (M)91.8196.44101.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,093.222,198.672,308.34
Equity Value (M)2,536.122,655.072,778.59
Shares Outstanding (M)101.71101.71101.71
Fair Value$24.94$26.10$27.32
Upside / Downside12.83%18.12%23.62%

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