Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. (4041.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,806.66 - $55,986.19$52,467.26
Multi-Stage$8,594.99 - $9,410.48$8,995.23
Blended Fair Value$30,731.24
Current Price$3,450.00
Upside790.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.52%18.47%120.14136.66108.8763.8148.0032.9632.9432.9636.2741.70
YoY Growth---12.09%25.52%70.63%32.93%45.64%0.06%-0.06%-9.14%-13.01%88.94%
Dividend Yield--3.96%5.19%4.21%2.92%2.99%2.33%2.35%2.15%2.34%4.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,460.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,950.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,510.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,092.001,932.501,159.50
Cash Retained (M)10,510.0010,510.0010,510.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,092.00-1,932.50-1,159.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,418.008,577.509,350.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.9254.9254.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share135.08156.19170.27
LTM Dividend per Share90.1490.1490.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share135.08156.19170.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend225.21246.33260.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27,806.66$52,467.26$55,986.19
Upside / Downside705.99%1,420.79%1,522.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,460.0016,464.9017,535.1218,674.9019,888.7721,181.5421,816.99
Payout Ratio32.02%43.61%55.21%66.81%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,950.007,181.089,681.2912,476.1915,593.5219,063.3920,180.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,688.636,752.036,815.43
Year 2 PV (M)8,399.008,558.988,720.46
Year 3 PV (M)10,081.4610,370.8610,665.75
Year 4 PV (M)11,736.3412,187.6812,651.92
Year 5 PV (M)13,363.9814,009.4614,679.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)421,743.90442,114.29463,264.30
Equity Value (M)472,013.29493,993.29516,797.51
Shares Outstanding (M)54.9254.9254.92
Fair Value$8,594.99$8,995.23$9,410.48
Upside / Downside149.13%160.73%172.77%

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