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Definitive Analysis

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HPSP Co., Ltd. (403870.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42,009.98 - $201,803.84$91,042.56
Multi-Stage$23,048.78 - $25,179.11$24,094.59
Blended Fair Value$57,568.57
Current Price$33,750.00
Upside70.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS143.12%0.00%91.6822.210.00244.9892.921.0883.670.000.000.00
YoY Growth--312.86%0.00%-100.00%163.66%8,508.32%-98.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.04%0.00%2.27%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82,868.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48,219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,649.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16,573.6910,358.566,215.13
Cash Retained (M)34,649.2434,649.2434,649.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-16,573.69-10,358.56-6,215.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,075.5524,290.6928,434.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6781.6781.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share221.34297.44348.18
LTM Dividend per Share590.45590.45590.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share221.34297.44348.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend811.78887.89938.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42,009.98$91,042.56$201,803.84
Upside / Downside24.47%169.76%497.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82,868.4588,254.8993,991.46100,100.91106,607.47113,536.95116,943.06
Payout Ratio58.19%64.55%70.91%77.28%83.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48,219.2056,968.6466,651.7877,353.0489,163.85102,183.26108,172.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52,477.6352,975.0553,472.47
Year 2 PV (M)56,557.2757,634.5358,721.95
Year 3 PV (M)60,463.3762,199.0663,967.65
Year 4 PV (M)64,201.0666,670.0569,209.58
Year 5 PV (M)67,775.3071,048.8774,447.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,580,821.111,657,175.371,736,451.87
Equity Value (M)1,882,295.741,967,702.922,056,271.24
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6781.6781.67
Fair Value$23,048.78$24,094.59$25,179.11
Upside / Downside-31.71%-28.61%-25.40%

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