Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Iida Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (3291.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,117.71 - $3,482.54$2,724.72
Multi-Stage$3,486.02 - $3,833.85$3,656.57
Blended Fair Value$3,190.65
Current Price$2,361.50
Upside35.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.14%9.61%90.8291.1292.9891.3464.3764.3463.3063.3347.7239.42
YoY Growth---0.32%-2.01%1.80%41.90%0.04%1.65%-0.05%32.69%21.05%8.66%
Dividend Yield--4.47%4.35%3.83%4.37%2.25%3.90%3.51%2.96%2.55%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51,962.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,307.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,654.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,392.406,495.253,897.15
Cash Retained (M)45,654.5045,654.5045,654.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,392.40-6,495.25-3,897.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)35,262.1039,159.2541,757.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)277.82277.82277.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share126.92140.95150.30
LTM Dividend per Share22.7022.7022.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share126.92140.95150.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend149.63163.65173.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$2,117.71$2,724.72$3,482.54
Upside / Downside-10.32%15.38%47.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51,962.0052,522.9153,089.8753,662.9454,242.2154,827.7356,472.56
Payout Ratio12.14%27.71%43.28%58.86%74.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,307.5014,554.5922,979.0031,583.5840,371.2549,344.9652,237.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)13,448.9313,583.3113,717.69
Year 2 PV (M)19,620.3220,014.3820,412.35
Year 3 PV (M)24,918.6225,673.0726,442.60
Year 4 PV (M)29,432.1830,626.2831,856.35
Year 5 PV (M)33,241.4934,935.7736,698.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)847,830.29891,043.13936,000.29
Equity Value (M)968,491.821,015,875.931,065,127.72
Shares Outstanding (M)277.82277.82277.82
Fair Value$3,486.02$3,656.57$3,833.85
Upside / Downside47.62%54.84%62.35%

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