Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $68.74 - $105.05 | $85.73 |
| Multi-Stage | $144.21 - $158.34 | $151.14 |
| Blended Fair Value | $118.43 | |
| Current Price | $114.00 | |
| Upside | 3.89% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 14.04% | 0.00% | 5.33 | 3.56 | 3.65 | 4.44 | 4.15 | 2.77 | 3.95 | 3.36 | 3.06 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 50.00% | -2.70% | -17.78% | 7.14% | 50.00% | -30.00% | 17.65% | 9.68% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.62% | 3.92% | 6.92% | 7.88% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 455.95 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 352.11 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 103.84 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 91.19 | 56.99 | 34.20 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 103.84 | 103.84 | 103.84 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -91.19 | -56.99 | -34.20 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 12.65 | 46.84 | 69.64 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 59.41 | 59.41 | 59.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.93 | 5.93 | 5.93 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.14 | 6.71 | 7.10 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.01% | 7.01% | 7.01% |
| Growth Rate | -1.77% | -0.77% | 0.23% |
| Fair Value | $68.74 | $85.73 | $105.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.70% | -24.80% | -7.85% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 455.95 | 452.46 | 449.00 | 445.56 | 442.15 | 438.77 | 451.93 |
| Payout Ratio | 77.23% | 79.78% | 82.34% | 84.89% | 87.45% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 352.11 | 360.98 | 369.68 | 378.24 | 386.64 | 394.89 | 418.03 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.01% | 7.01% | 7.01% |
| Growth Rate | -1.77% | -0.77% | 0.23% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 333.94 | 337.34 | 340.74 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 316.38 | 322.85 | 329.39 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 299.45 | 308.69 | 318.11 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 283.17 | 294.88 | 306.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 267.55 | 281.45 | 295.92 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,067.26 | 7,434.38 | 7,816.59 |
| Equity Value (M) | 8,567.75 | 8,979.58 | 9,407.70 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 59.41 | 59.41 | 59.41 |
| Fair Value | $144.21 | $151.14 | $158.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 26.50% | 32.58% | 38.90% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |