Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. (3086.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,608.76 - $2,841.18$2,131.16
Multi-Stage$3,062.97 - $3,367.15$3,212.13
Blended Fair Value$2,671.64
Current Price$2,301.50
Upside16.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.91%5.56%42.7332.9430.8532.8827.7937.0136.9830.8128.7726.84
YoY Growth--29.72%6.77%-6.18%18.31%-24.90%0.07%20.03%7.08%7.21%7.95%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.16%2.26%3.16%2.58%4.04%3.26%1.80%1.84%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,685.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,397.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,288.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,137.003,835.632,301.38
Cash Retained (M)17,288.0017,288.0017,288.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,137.00-3,835.63-2,301.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,151.0013,452.3814,986.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)253.88253.88253.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share43.9252.9959.03
LTM Dividend per Share52.7752.7752.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share43.9252.9959.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend96.69105.76111.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Fair Value$1,608.76$2,131.16$2,841.18
Upside / Downside-30.10%-7.40%23.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,685.0031,040.9231,400.9731,765.1932,133.6432,506.3633,481.56
Payout Ratio43.66%52.93%62.20%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,397.0016,429.2819,530.1022,700.6525,942.1229,255.7330,970.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)15,320.1015,473.0615,626.01
Year 2 PV (M)16,982.0717,322.8617,667.04
Year 3 PV (M)18,406.3418,963.1719,531.12
Year 4 PV (M)19,614.5220,409.6621,228.73
Year 5 PV (M)20,626.5321,676.9822,769.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)686,665.61721,635.42758,015.66
Equity Value (M)777,615.18815,481.15854,838.36
Shares Outstanding (M)253.88253.88253.88
Fair Value$3,062.97$3,212.13$3,367.15
Upside / Downside33.09%39.57%46.30%

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