Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.97 - $12.74 | $10.83 |
| Multi-Stage | $26.94 - $29.69 | $28.29 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19.56 | |
| Current Price | $22.02 | |
| Upside | -11.19% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.55% | -7.33% | 1.46 | 1.83 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.03 | 1.75 | 1.04 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 5.28 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -20.32% | -29.43% | 4.00% | 23.28% | 15.80% | 68.10% | -79.16% | 11.11% | -14.78% | 68.76% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.37% | 5.78% | 7.16% | 5.84% | 4.66% | 7.01% | 4.13% | 14.28% | 11.84% | 11.57% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 140.82 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 129.32 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 28.16 | 17.60 | 10.56 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11.50 | 11.50 | 11.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -28.16 | -17.60 | -10.56 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -16.67 | -6.10 | 0.94 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.06 | 0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.06 | 0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.13 | 1.23 | 1.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -5.55% | -4.55% | -3.55% |
| Fair Value | $8.97 | $10.83 | $12.74 |
| Upside / Downside | -59.27% | -50.83% | -42.15% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 140.82 | 134.42 | 128.30 | 122.47 | 116.90 | 111.58 | 114.93 |
| Payout Ratio | 91.83% | 91.47% | 91.10% | 90.73% | 90.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 129.32 | 122.95 | 116.89 | 111.12 | 105.64 | 100.42 | 106.31 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -5.55% | -4.55% | -3.55% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 114.43 | 115.64 | 116.86 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 101.26 | 103.41 | 105.59 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 89.59 | 92.47 | 95.41 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 79.27 | 82.69 | 86.21 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 70.14 | 73.94 | 77.89 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,239.44 | 2,360.53 | 2,486.80 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,694.15 | 2,828.68 | 2,968.75 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| Fair Value | $26.94 | $28.29 | $29.69 |
| Upside / Downside | 22.35% | 28.46% | 34.82% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |