Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nantong JiangTian Chemical Co., Ltd. (300927.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.20 - $20.72$17.35
Multi-Stage$23.74 - $26.13$24.91
Blended Fair Value$21.13
Current Price$26.16
Upside-19.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.02%0.00%0.180.140.170.140.130.180.140.090.230.00
YoY Growth--27.78%-16.49%25.22%4.59%-28.54%32.36%52.16%-60.89%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.94%1.03%0.90%0.74%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)252.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3933.9920.40
Cash Retained (M)252.09252.09252.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.39-33.99-20.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)197.70218.10231.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.91143.91143.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.371.521.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.371.521.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.20$17.35$20.72
Upside / Downside-45.74%-33.69%-20.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.96269.24266.55263.88261.24258.63266.39
Payout Ratio7.30%23.84%40.38%56.92%73.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.8764.20107.64150.21191.91232.77246.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)58.6059.2059.80
Year 2 PV (M)89.7091.5493.40
Year 3 PV (M)114.27117.80121.41
Year 4 PV (M)133.28138.80144.49
Year 5 PV (M)147.57155.25163.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,873.303,022.923,178.71
Equity Value (M)3,416.723,585.523,761.07
Shares Outstanding (M)143.91143.91143.91
Fair Value$23.74$24.91$26.13
Upside / Downside-9.24%-4.76%-0.10%

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