Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Winner Medical Co., Ltd. (300888.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.09 - $298.50$100.91
Multi-Stage$30.65 - $33.52$32.06
Blended Fair Value$66.48
Current Price$38.30
Upside73.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.15%23.80%0.711.410.691.320.180.070.070.200.100.10
YoY Growth---49.77%104.90%-47.80%650.68%137.66%0.60%-62.58%94.91%-3.64%24.82%
Dividend Yield--1.54%3.99%1.46%3.01%0.18%0.08%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)874.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)227.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)647.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.86109.2965.57
Cash Retained (M)647.12647.12647.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.86-109.29-65.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.26537.83581.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)582.51582.51582.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.921.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.921.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.09$100.91$298.50
Upside / Downside38.62%163.47%679.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)874.31931.14991.661,056.121,124.771,197.881,233.81
Payout Ratio25.98%38.79%51.59%64.39%77.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)227.19361.17511.61680.08868.291,078.091,141.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)331.63334.77337.91
Year 2 PV (M)431.33439.55447.84
Year 3 PV (M)526.47541.58556.98
Year 4 PV (M)617.18640.92665.33
Year 5 PV (M)703.63737.61772.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,244.6015,980.9216,745.42
Equity Value (M)17,854.8318,675.3419,526.37
Shares Outstanding (M)582.51582.51582.51
Fair Value$30.65$32.06$33.52
Upside / Downside-19.97%-16.29%-12.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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