Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300705.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.94 - $175.19$56.55
Multi-Stage$18.48 - $20.20$19.32
Blended Fair Value$37.94
Current Price$16.45
Upside130.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.51%40.48%0.230.190.140.030.020.030.030.000.020.00
YoY Growth--22.29%36.53%361.64%77.69%-45.46%-0.27%2,195.40%-94.51%1,234.93%-76.12%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.70%0.68%0.23%0.12%0.53%0.41%0.01%0.46%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)469.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)310.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.8058.6335.18
Cash Retained (M)310.98310.98310.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.80-58.63-35.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.18252.35275.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)506.64506.64506.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.94$56.55$175.19
Upside / Downside88.07%243.78%964.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)469.00499.49531.96566.53603.36642.58661.85
Payout Ratio33.69%44.96%56.22%67.48%78.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.03224.55299.05382.28475.08578.32612.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)205.91207.86209.82
Year 2 PV (M)251.47256.26261.10
Year 3 PV (M)294.79303.25311.88
Year 4 PV (M)335.95348.87362.16
Year 5 PV (M)375.02393.13411.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,899.788,281.348,677.50
Equity Value (M)9,362.929,790.7210,234.39
Shares Outstanding (M)506.64506.64506.64
Fair Value$18.48$19.32$20.20
Upside / Downside12.34%17.48%22.80%

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