Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Sangfor Technologies Inc. (300454.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.83 - $24.47$19.84
Multi-Stage$18.85 - $20.67$19.74
Blended Fair Value$19.79
Current Price$125.50
Upside-84.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.55%3.40%0.120.050.090.210.190.140.290.350.880.04
YoY Growth--151.73%-47.01%-56.98%7.60%35.19%-50.31%-17.84%-60.18%2,083.23%-52.86%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.07%0.06%0.19%0.08%0.09%0.27%0.81%2.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)695.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)665.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.1987.0052.20
Cash Retained (M)665.70665.70665.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.19-87.00-52.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)526.51578.70613.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)422.82422.82422.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.371.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.371.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Fair Value$15.83$19.84$24.47
Upside / Downside-87.38%-84.19%-80.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)695.97712.66729.75747.25765.18783.53807.03
Payout Ratio4.35%21.48%38.61%55.74%72.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.27153.07281.75416.52557.58705.18746.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)138.01139.37140.73
Year 2 PV (M)229.03233.57238.15
Year 3 PV (M)305.25314.37323.67
Year 4 PV (M)368.42383.17398.36
Year 5 PV (M)420.09441.22463.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,509.186,836.547,176.95
Equity Value (M)7,969.978,348.248,741.05
Shares Outstanding (M)422.82422.82422.82
Fair Value$18.85$19.74$20.67
Upside / Downside-84.98%-84.27%-83.53%

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