Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo David Medical Device Co., Ltd. (300314.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.47 - $9.70$6.39
Multi-Stage$3.32 - $3.62$3.47
Blended Fair Value$4.93
Current Price$13.88
Upside-64.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%15.01%0.180.150.100.150.040.090.050.060.040.06
YoY Growth--20.00%50.00%-33.33%275.00%-55.56%80.00%-16.67%50.00%-28.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%1.28%0.62%1.22%0.25%0.81%0.49%0.46%0.21%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.318.324.99
Cash Retained (M)41.5241.5241.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.31-8.32-4.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.2033.2036.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)287.93287.93287.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.47$6.39$9.70
Upside / Downside-67.82%-53.93%-30.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.5770.9075.5180.4285.6491.2193.95
Payout Ratio37.64%48.11%58.58%69.05%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.0634.1144.2355.5368.1182.0986.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.7531.0531.34
Year 2 PV (M)35.9636.6437.34
Year 3 PV (M)40.7041.8743.06
Year 4 PV (M)45.0146.7448.52
Year 5 PV (M)48.9151.2753.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)753.75790.16827.96
Equity Value (M)955.09997.741,041.95
Shares Outstanding (M)287.93287.93287.93
Fair Value$3.32$3.47$3.62
Upside / Downside-76.10%-75.03%-73.93%

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