Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Refond Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd. (300241.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.63 - $1.03$0.81
Multi-Stage$1.01 - $1.10$1.05
Blended Fair Value$0.93
Current Price$5.79
Upside-83.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.74%0.00%0.020.030.050.010.020.020.030.010.010.04
YoY Growth---20.11%-43.63%257.53%-13.48%-17.85%-41.60%132.04%31.12%-73.97%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.61%0.83%0.21%0.25%0.35%0.43%0.16%0.15%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.634.772.86
Cash Retained (M)15.4415.4415.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.63-4.77-2.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.8110.6712.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)687.26687.26687.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Fair Value$0.63$0.81$1.03
Upside / Downside-89.18%-86.09%-82.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.1638.7039.2439.7940.3540.9142.14
Payout Ratio59.54%65.63%71.73%77.82%83.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7225.4028.1530.9633.8636.8238.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate0.40%1.40%2.40%
Year 1 PV (M)23.3923.6223.86
Year 2 PV (M)23.8724.3524.83
Year 3 PV (M)24.1824.9125.66
Year 4 PV (M)24.3525.3326.35
Year 5 PV (M)24.3925.6326.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)571.24600.26630.45
Equity Value (M)691.42724.10758.05
Shares Outstanding (M)687.26687.26687.26
Fair Value$1.01$1.05$1.10
Upside / Downside-82.62%-81.80%-80.95%

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