Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Toread Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (300005.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.33 - $0.48$0.41
Multi-Stage$0.49 - $0.54$0.52
Blended Fair Value$0.46
Current Price$8.82
Upside-94.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS101.36%-13.10%0.030.000.000.000.050.000.000.140.010.12
YoY Growth--23,267.75%17.82%0.00%-100.00%5,505.73%-46.43%-98.76%1,242.20%-91.37%-3.44%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.73%0.03%0.04%2.76%0.11%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.584.742.84
Cash Retained (M)23.7723.7723.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.58-4.74-2.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1919.0320.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)845.46845.46845.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-0.96%0.04%1.04%
Fair Value$0.33$0.41$0.48
Upside / Downside-96.23%-95.40%-94.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.9137.9337.9537.9637.9837.9939.13
Payout Ratio37.30%47.84%58.38%68.92%79.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1418.1422.1526.1630.1834.1936.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-0.96%0.04%1.04%
Year 1 PV (M)16.3716.5416.70
Year 2 PV (M)18.0318.4018.77
Year 3 PV (M)19.2219.8120.41
Year 4 PV (M)20.0020.8221.66
Year 5 PV (M)20.4521.5022.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)321.99338.57355.84
Equity Value (M)416.06435.64455.97
Shares Outstanding (M)845.46845.46845.46
Fair Value$0.49$0.52$0.54
Upside / Downside-94.42%-94.16%-93.89%

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