Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Perennial Energy Holdings Limited (2798.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.76 - $7.42$5.98
Multi-Stage$10.98 - $12.11$11.53
Blended Fair Value$8.76
Current Price$0.68
Upside1,180.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.110.030.030.020.000.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---59.42%264.20%-7.71%45.25%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.13%14.50%4.89%2.50%0.27%0.00%15.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)796.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)720.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.3299.5759.74
Cash Retained (M)720.80720.80720.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.32-99.57-59.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)561.48621.22661.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.76$5.98$7.42
Upside / Downside595.14%774.63%984.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)796.60788.63780.74772.94765.21757.55780.28
Payout Ratio9.52%25.61%41.71%57.81%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.80201.98325.64446.80565.51681.80721.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)188.26190.18192.10
Year 2 PV (M)282.89288.69294.55
Year 3 PV (M)361.76372.95384.37
Year 4 PV (M)426.76444.45462.68
Year 5 PV (M)479.55504.52530.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,826.9816,651.1317,509.26
Equity Value (M)17,566.2018,451.9119,373.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$10.98$11.53$12.11
Upside / Downside1,504.75%1,585.66%1,669.85%

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