Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Crown Confectionery Co., Ltd. (264900.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$230,078.76 - $271,071.76$254,033.94
Multi-Stage$48,577.91 - $53,246.80$50,869.13
Blended Fair Value$152,451.53
Current Price$8,070.00
Upside1,789.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.24%13.24%351.59351.59100.10351.59101.37101.37101.37320.13202.64101.46
YoY Growth--0.00%251.23%-71.53%246.83%0.00%0.00%-68.33%57.98%99.72%0.09%
Dividend Yield--6.58%5.80%1.54%3.76%1.04%1.32%0.85%2.36%0.40%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,399.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,946.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,452.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,079.952,549.971,529.98
Cash Retained (M)18,452.9418,452.9418,452.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,079.95-2,549.97-1,529.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,372.9915,902.9716,922.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.9714.9714.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share960.341,062.571,130.72
LTM Dividend per Share130.08130.08130.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share960.341,062.571,130.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,090.421,192.651,260.80
WACC / Discount Rate5.86%5.86%5.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$230,078.76$254,033.94$271,071.76
Upside / Downside2,751.04%3,047.88%3,259.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,399.7321,725.7123,137.8824,641.8426,243.5627,949.3928,787.87
Payout Ratio9.54%25.63%41.73%57.82%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,946.795,569.299,654.5014,247.2419,396.2625,154.4526,628.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.86%5.86%5.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,211.725,261.125,310.52
Year 2 PV (M)8,454.598,615.628,778.18
Year 3 PV (M)11,675.4912,010.6512,352.16
Year 4 PV (M)14,874.5415,446.5716,034.95
Year 5 PV (M)18,051.8618,923.7719,829.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)668,773.04701,075.03734,613.29
Equity Value (M)727,041.24761,332.77796,918.16
Shares Outstanding (M)14.9714.9714.97
Fair Value$48,577.91$50,869.13$53,246.80
Upside / Downside501.96%530.35%559.81%

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