Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CN Logistics International Holdings Limited (2130.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.61 - $0.85$0.73
Multi-Stage$0.88 - $0.96$0.92
Blended Fair Value$0.82
Current Price$3.42
Upside-75.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.120.310.200.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---74.82%-61.91%52.63%10,388.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.86%2.07%3.92%1.97%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.773.602.16
Cash Retained (M)20.0520.0520.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.77-3.60-2.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.2816.4417.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)292.69292.69292.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.76%10.76%10.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.61$0.73$0.85
Upside / Downside-82.30%-78.78%-75.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.8328.5428.2527.9727.6927.4228.24
Payout Ratio30.46%42.37%54.28%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.7812.0915.3418.5121.6324.6726.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.76%10.76%10.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.8110.9211.03
Year 2 PV (M)12.2512.5012.76
Year 3 PV (M)13.2213.6314.04
Year 4 PV (M)13.8014.3714.96
Year 5 PV (M)14.0714.8015.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)192.05202.05212.46
Equity Value (M)256.19268.27280.81
Shares Outstanding (M)292.69292.69292.69
Fair Value$0.88$0.92$0.96
Upside / Downside-74.41%-73.20%-71.95%

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