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China Kepei Education Group Limited (1890.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.63 - $5.58$4.54
Multi-Stage$7.81 - $8.61$8.20
Blended Fair Value$6.37
Current Price$1.25
Upside409.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)670.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.32100.2060.12
Cash Retained (M)670.97670.97670.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.32-100.20-60.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)510.65570.77610.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.63$4.54$5.58
Upside / Downside190.32%262.94%346.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.58793.57785.63777.78770.00762.30785.17
Payout Ratio16.29%31.04%45.78%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.62246.29359.64470.69579.49686.07726.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)228.69231.03233.36
Year 2 PV (M)310.08316.44322.87
Year 3 PV (M)376.84388.49400.38
Year 4 PV (M)430.80448.65467.05
Year 5 PV (M)473.58498.24523.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,899.5014,623.2815,376.90
Equity Value (M)15,719.4916,506.1317,324.49
Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
Fair Value$7.81$8.20$8.61
Upside / Downside525.02%556.30%588.84%

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