Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tehmag Foods Corporation (1264.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,165.49 - $4,131.66$3,871.97
Multi-Stage$657.69 - $719.30$687.93
Blended Fair Value$2,279.95
Current Price$320.50
Upside611.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.95%11.27%13.9811.9811.9810.899.999.999.538.259.088.25
YoY Growth--16.67%0.00%10.00%9.05%0.00%4.76%15.50%-9.09%10.00%71.83%
Dividend Yield--4.56%3.94%4.45%3.86%3.99%5.60%4.91%3.96%4.63%5.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)771.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)518.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)252.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.2296.3957.83
Cash Retained (M)252.36252.36252.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.22-96.39-57.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.14155.97194.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.1237.1237.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.644.205.24
LTM Dividend per Share13.9813.9813.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.644.205.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6218.1819.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,165.49$3,871.97$4,131.66
Upside / Downside575.66%1,108.10%1,189.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)771.09821.21874.59931.44991.981,056.461,088.16
Payout Ratio67.27%71.82%76.36%80.91%85.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)518.73589.78667.87753.62847.69950.821,006.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)549.56554.77559.98
Year 2 PV (M)579.90590.94602.09
Year 3 PV (M)609.74627.24645.07
Year 4 PV (M)639.09663.66688.94
Year 5 PV (M)667.95700.22733.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,364.4522,396.3623,467.76
Equity Value (M)24,410.6825,533.1926,697.56
Shares Outstanding (M)37.1237.1237.12
Fair Value$657.69$687.93$719.30
Upside / Downside105.21%114.64%124.43%

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