Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $13.75 - $50.57 | $23.00 |
| Multi-Stage | $8.53 - $9.34 | $8.93 |
| Blended Fair Value | $15.96 | |
| Current Price | $11.99 | |
| Upside | 33.13% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 35.30% | 19.71% | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 63.44% | 17.24% | -37.44% | 125.87% | 67.44% | 10.54% | 9.21% | 2.47% | 2.98% | 4.68% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.69% | 0.47% | 0.32% | 0.49% | 0.25% | 0.48% | 0.35% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.33% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 308.98 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 16.18 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 292.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 61.80 | 38.62 | 23.17 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 292.80 | 292.80 | 292.80 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -61.80 | -38.62 | -23.17 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 231.01 | 254.18 | 269.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 644.46 | 644.46 | 644.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.44% | 8.44% | 8.44% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $13.75 | $23.00 | $50.57 |
| Upside / Downside | 14.68% | 91.80% | 321.75% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 308.98 | 329.06 | 350.45 | 373.23 | 397.49 | 423.33 | 436.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 5.24% | 22.19% | 39.14% | 56.09% | 73.05% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 16.18 | 73.02 | 137.17 | 209.36 | 290.36 | 381.00 | 403.33 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.44% | 8.44% | 8.44% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 66.70 | 67.33 | 67.96 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 114.47 | 116.65 | 118.85 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 159.59 | 164.17 | 168.84 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 202.18 | 209.96 | 217.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 242.34 | 254.05 | 266.20 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,713.55 | 4,941.22 | 5,177.60 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,498.83 | 5,753.37 | 6,017.40 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 644.46 | 644.46 | 644.46 |
| Fair Value | $8.53 | $8.93 | $9.34 |
| Upside / Downside | -28.84% | -25.54% | -22.13% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |