Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Barry Callebaut AG (0QO7.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,652.83 - $13,466.44$11,182.07
Multi-Stage$2,289.21 - $2,505.24$2,395.23
Blended Fair Value$6,788.65
Current Price$1,091.00
Upside522.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.19%6.46%28.9528.9327.9627.9321.9725.9823.9412.724.1914.49
YoY Growth--0.08%3.47%0.08%27.13%-15.41%8.52%88.20%203.82%-71.10%-6.45%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.10%1.81%1.39%0.94%1.30%1.18%0.74%0.30%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)317.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.1346.9628.17
Cash Retained (M)57.6757.6757.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.13-46.96-28.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.4610.7129.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.495.495.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-3.181.955.37
LTM Dividend per Share57.8857.8857.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share-3.181.955.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend54.7059.8363.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.46%5.46%6.46%
Fair Value$3,652.83$11,182.07$13,466.44
Upside / Downside234.81%924.94%1,134.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.65396.15417.77440.56464.60489.96504.66
Payout Ratio84.65%85.72%86.79%87.86%88.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)317.98339.57362.57387.08413.17440.96466.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate4.46%5.46%6.46%
Year 1 PV (M)317.25320.29323.33
Year 2 PV (M)316.47322.56328.71
Year 3 PV (M)315.65324.80334.13
Year 4 PV (M)314.78327.01339.59
Year 5 PV (M)313.87329.19345.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,998.5711,535.2112,092.60
Equity Value (M)12,576.6013,159.0613,763.45
Shares Outstanding (M)5.495.495.49
Fair Value$2,289.21$2,395.23$2,505.24
Upside / Downside109.83%119.54%129.63%

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