Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $105.95 - $281.06 | $162.01 |
| Multi-Stage | $72.87 - $79.60 | $76.17 |
| Blended Fair Value | $119.09 | |
| Current Price | $94.60 | |
| Upside | 25.89% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 16.50% | 19.82% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.04% | 7.87% | 15.81% | 42.34% | 20.75% | 34.69% | 32.94% | 21.81% | 25.58% | 3.75% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.61% | 1.76% | 2.22% | 1.15% | 1.08% | 1.76% | 0.98% | 0.64% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8,233.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,340.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5,893.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,646.60 | 1,029.13 | 617.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5,893.00 | 5,893.00 | 5,893.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,646.60 | -1,029.13 | -617.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4,246.40 | 4,863.88 | 5,275.53 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,822.75 | 1,822.75 | 1,822.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.61 | 3.95 | 4.18 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $105.95 | $162.01 | $281.06 |
| Upside / Downside | 12.00% | 71.26% | 197.11% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8,233.00 | 8,768.15 | 9,338.07 | 9,945.05 | 10,591.48 | 11,279.92 | 11,618.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 28.42% | 40.74% | 53.05% | 65.37% | 77.68% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,340.00 | 3,571.95 | 4,954.16 | 6,500.97 | 8,227.93 | 10,151.93 | 10,746.95 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,243.33 | 3,274.07 | 3,304.81 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,084.53 | 4,162.33 | 4,240.86 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,866.72 | 5,006.42 | 5,148.78 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,592.87 | 5,807.96 | 6,029.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 6,265.84 | 6,568.48 | 6,882.70 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 108,774.73 | 114,028.59 | 119,483.53 |
| Equity Value (M) | 132,828.01 | 138,847.85 | 145,089.87 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,822.75 | 1,822.75 | 1,822.75 |
| Fair Value | $72.87 | $76.17 | $79.60 |
| Upside / Downside | -22.97% | -19.48% | -15.86% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |