Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $290.78 - $771.36 | $444.63 |
| Multi-Stage | $200.52 - $219.00 | $209.60 |
| Blended Fair Value | $327.12 | |
| Current Price | $476.48 | |
| Upside | -31.35% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.40% | 10.14% | 3.42 | 3.12 | 2.84 | 2.56 | 2.32 | 2.09 | 1.86 | 1.60 | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.93% | 9.51% | 11.23% | 10.24% | 11.11% | 12.10% | 16.12% | 1.86% | 4.78% | 15.30% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.74% | 0.79% | 0.93% | 0.76% | 0.78% | 0.99% | 1.01% | 0.99% | 1.41% | 1.56% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,244.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 689.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,555.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 448.80 | 280.50 | 168.30 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,555.00 | 1,555.00 | 1,555.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -448.80 | -280.50 | -168.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,106.20 | 1,274.50 | 1,386.70 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 181.03 | 181.03 | 181.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6.11 | 7.04 | 7.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.81 | 3.81 | 3.81 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6.11 | 7.04 | 7.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.92 | 10.85 | 11.47 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $290.78 | $444.63 | $771.36 |
| Upside / Downside | -38.97% | -6.68% | 61.89% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,244.00 | 2,389.86 | 2,545.20 | 2,710.64 | 2,886.83 | 3,074.47 | 3,166.71 |
| Payout Ratio | 30.70% | 42.56% | 54.42% | 66.28% | 78.14% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 689.00 | 1,017.20 | 1,385.16 | 1,796.66 | 2,255.79 | 2,767.03 | 2,929.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 923.62 | 932.38 | 941.13 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,142.02 | 1,163.77 | 1,185.73 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,345.00 | 1,383.61 | 1,422.95 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,533.36 | 1,592.33 | 1,652.98 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,707.83 | 1,790.32 | 1,875.96 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,647.82 | 31,079.82 | 32,566.63 |
| Equity Value (M) | 36,299.64 | 37,942.22 | 39,645.38 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 181.03 | 181.03 | 181.03 |
| Fair Value | $200.52 | $209.60 | $219.00 |
| Upside / Downside | -57.92% | -56.01% | -54.04% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |