Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $37.52 - $53.40 | $45.33 |
| Multi-Stage | $63.74 - $69.98 | $66.80 |
| Blended Fair Value | $56.07 | |
| Current Price | $81.40 | |
| Upside | -31.12% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.46% | -0.60% | 2.24 | 2.30 | 2.61 | 2.70 | 2.72 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.70 | 2.59 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -2.49% | -12.17% | -3.20% | -0.91% | 2.09% | 0.11% | -0.05% | -1.03% | 3.96% | 9.13% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.81% | 3.12% | 4.53% | 3.79% | 4.47% | 8.54% | 6.08% | 5.81% | 5.05% | 4.86% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,841.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,578.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,263.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 768.20 | 480.13 | 288.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,263.00 | 2,263.00 | 2,263.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -768.20 | -480.13 | -288.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,494.80 | 1,782.88 | 1,974.93 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 682.25 | 682.25 | 682.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.19 | 2.61 | 2.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.31 | 2.31 | 2.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.19 | 2.61 | 2.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.50 | 4.93 | 5.21 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.60% | -1.60% | -0.60% |
| Fair Value | $37.52 | $45.33 | $53.40 |
| Upside / Downside | -53.91% | -44.31% | -34.39% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,841.00 | 3,779.71 | 3,719.40 | 3,660.06 | 3,601.66 | 3,544.19 | 3,650.51 |
| Payout Ratio | 41.08% | 50.87% | 60.65% | 70.43% | 80.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,578.00 | 1,922.61 | 2,255.81 | 2,577.90 | 2,889.13 | 3,189.77 | 3,376.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.60% | -1.60% | -0.60% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,744.37 | 1,762.27 | 1,780.18 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,856.94 | 1,895.26 | 1,933.98 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,925.34 | 1,985.25 | 2,046.39 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,957.74 | 2,039.39 | 2,123.56 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,961.08 | 2,063.84 | 2,170.86 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 34,044.33 | 35,828.16 | 37,685.99 |
| Equity Value (M) | 43,489.79 | 45,574.16 | 47,740.95 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 682.25 | 682.25 | 682.25 |
| Fair Value | $63.74 | $66.80 | $69.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -21.69% | -17.94% | -14.03% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |